ARC: Economic indicators remain positive

The results of ARC's latest economic indicators survey show that companies are still optimistic about the 2010 economy.

Sean Murphy -- Supply Chain Management Review, 2/2/2010

The latest data from a survey by ARC Advisory Group confirms what other analysts and economists are predicting: Things are getting better, but 2009 was a hard year, and the recovery will be slow and incremental.

The survey, ARC's Economic Indicators Survey, an ongoing monthly analysis of current economic trends, shows that key economic indicators are on the rise, particularly in manufacturing.

"There's future business on the way," ARC's Allen Avery told SCMR.

Some industries, such as automation services, will be in a good position to capitalize on the coming growth.

"They've weathered the recession very well," he said.

Past reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) mirror these results. ISM's PMI, the index it uses to monitor the manufacturing sector, has steadily crept upward through most of 2009, finally passing 50 percent, the marker that indicates growth.

But there's a long way to go. ISM has predicted that employment will still lag far behind other indices in the sector, and Avery agreed. The current ARC survey data, he said, shows that employment will still remain a major issue, and potentially hold back growth in 2010.

Another possible problem, Avery said, could be carbon legislation. Despite the lack of progress at the recent international gathering in Copenhagen, Avery said there is the potential for environmental legislation in the U.S. this year, which will play a part in the recovery.

Despite possible roadblocks, Avery said the overall outlook is good. Respondents to the most recent survey are cautious, but they have a positive outlook for 2010, he said.

"They're optimistic, but I think it's a guarded optimism," he said.

You can read the report, and participate in the survey, by clicking here.

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